Russia’s military forces are making significant advances in Ukraine’s East, closing in on the key city of Pokrovsk. If Russia captures Pokrovsk, it would gain a strategic advantage in seizing the rest of the Donbas region, cutting off Ukrainian supply lines and threatening Ukrainian positions to the south of the city. Despite Ukrainian efforts to defend the city with extra troops and fortifications, Russia has managed to form a “cauldron” around Pokrovsk, broadening its front and threatening encirclement of Ukrainian troops.
While Russia’s offensive in the Donbas has seen significant success in advancing towards Pokrovsk, other parts of the front have seen only modest gains after months of fighting. Ukraine, on the other hand, launched a surprise invasion of the Kursk region in August, capturing more territory in Russia in a month than Russia has in Ukraine over the past year. However, the long-term success of Ukraine’s gains in Russia remains to be seen.
The fast-moving phase of the war could be affected by upcoming fall rains, which could limit movement on both sides and make the unpaved roads impassable for heavy vehicles. Despite the challenges and the high cost of the overall Russian offensive in the Donbas, President Putin has emphasized that forces will not be diverted from the area to counter the Ukrainian advance in Russia. The situation remains fluid as both sides continue to navigate the evolving conflict in the region.
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